Rolling thirteen weeks
Group, sterling equivalent · rebuilt every Monday from the order book and agreed terms
| Week | 3 Augclosed | 10 Augclosed | 17 Augclosed | 24 Augopen | 31 Augopen | 7 Sepopen | 14 Sepopen | 21 Sepopen | 28 Sepopen | 5 Octopen | 12 Octopen | 19 Octopen | 26 Octopen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receipts | £4.1m | £3.0m | £3.7m | £3.4m | £2.9m | £4.0m | £3.2m | £3.6m | £2.9m | £3.4m | £3.9m | £4.0m | £3.7m |
| Payments | −£3.9m | −£4.4m | −£3.2m | −£3.2m | −£4.0m | −£3.3m | −£3.4m | −£3.7m | −£4.1m | −£6.4m | −£3.0m | −£3.2m | −£3.5m |
| Closing | £6.8m | £5.4m | £5.9m | £6.1m | £5.0m | £5.7m | £5.4m | £5.3m | £4.1m | £1.1m | £1.9m | £2.8m | £3.0m |
| Headroom | £4.8m | £3.4m | £3.9m | £4.1m | £3.0m | £3.7m | £3.4m | £3.3m | £2.1m | −£915k | −£57k | £775k | £988k |
| v forecast | +£122k | −£271k | +£128k | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
- Closed — banked
- Open — forecast
- Below the £2.0m floor
2 weeks go through the floor
Deepest at w/c 5 Oct, £915,220 short of the £2,000,000 covenant minimum
The €4.10m EIB development-loan repayment lands on 8 October, in the same week as the ordinary supplier run. It takes w/c 5 Oct to £1,084,780, and the week after it recovers only to £1,942,780 — still under the floor. Everything from w/c 19 Oct is clear.
Three ways out, costed
Draw £2.0m on the RCF for four weeks
Interest £11,400 · headroom falls to £3.5m
Reversible, no counterparty conversation, and it is what the facility is for.
Defer the 8 October supplier run by one week
No interest · 34 suppliers paid late
Cheapest on paper. Two of the 34 are sole-source and one is already on stop.
Break the 32-day Lloyds deposit
Forgone interest £4,200 · notice waived
Available from 12 September if the notice is served this week.
How wrong we were last time
Closed weeks against the forecast they were made under
The worst of the three closed weeks was w/c 10 Aug, out by £271,000 — the Q3 VAT payment moved a day and crossed the week end.
Variance is printed against every closed week in the grid rather than summarised as an accuracy percentage. “97% accurate” is a claim; “£271k out on w/c 10 Aug” is a fact somebody can go and check, and checking it is how the forecast gets better.